For anyone scrolling watch-related social media lately, the message can feel relentless: the market is down, prices are collapsing, the bubble has burst. Memes travel faster than nuance, and nowhere is that more apparent than in luxury watches. But strip away the noise, zoom out beyond the last 24 months, and a very different picture emerges.
From an industry perspective- grounded in transaction data, auction results, dealer inventory cycles and collector behaviour – the answer to the question “Is now a good time to buy a luxury watch?” is, quietly but confidently: yes.
The Myth of the “Down Market”
What many commentators label as a downturn is, in reality, a correction. Between 2020 and 2022 the watch market experienced an unprecedented surge. Ultra-low interest rates, excess liquidity, stimulus spending, and pandemic-era consumption patterns pushed demand well beyond historical norms. Scarcity narratives intensified, prices detached from fundamentals, and flipping became a sport.
That period is over—and that’s a good thing.
The cooling that followed was not a collapse but a return to equilibrium. Prices have normalised from speculative highs, liquidity has improved, and the market is once again being led by collectors rather than opportunists. In other words: the froth has gone, not the value.
A Ten-Year View Tells the Real Story
Zoom out to a ten-year horizon and the trajectory is unambiguous. Blue-chip references from houses like Rolex, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet and Cartier remain significantly up compared to 2015–2016 levels. Even after the post-pandemic correction, long-term holders are still well ahead.
Auction data supports this. While headline-grabbing record prices have softened, sell-through rates for quality, well-preserved examples remain strong. Importantly, volatility has decreased; an often-overlooked signal of a healthier, more sustainable market.
This is not a bear market. It’s a mature one.
The Quiet Signal: Retail Prices Are Rising
One of the most overlooked indicators of confidence comes directly from the manufacturers.
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Rolex has implemented multiple price increases over the past two years, including further adjustments in 2025. These were not reactive moves — they reflect sustained demand, rising production costs, and a strategic reinforcement of brand positioning. Historically, Rolex retail increases place a firm floor under secondary-market values over the medium to long term.
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Audemars Piguet has followed a similar trajectory. With its production intentionally capped and demand for core references like the Royal Oak remaining structurally strong, recent price increases signal confidence rather than concern. AP’s direct-to-client strategy further limits supply, tightening the market for collectors.
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Tudor, often seen as the value play within the Rolex group, has also raised prices steadily. This reflects not only improved finishing and in-house movements, but growing global demand. For many analysts, Tudor represents one of the most compelling long-term propositions in the luxury sports watch segment.
When brands raise prices in a “down market,” it tells you everything you need to know about their internal outlook.
A Healthier Market Is a Better Market
From an industry perspective, today’s environment is arguably the strongest in a decade — not because prices are euphoric, but because the market is rational.
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Supply is more predictable
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Buyers are better informed
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Speculative excess has been largely flushed out
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Long-term collectors are back in control
This is exactly the kind of market that historically precedes the next sustained growth phase.
The Return of Taste Over Hype
Perhaps the most encouraging shift is qualitative rather than financial. During the overheated years, attention narrowed to a handful of “hot” references. Today, interest has broadened. Vintage pieces with character, under-appreciated complications, and elegant dress watches are back in serious conversations.
This is where insiders see opportunity: not chasing yesterday’s hype, but identifying tomorrow’s classics. Markets don’t reward panic or euphoria; they reward patience and perspective.
Why the Memes Miss the Point
Memes thrive on extremes. “Market down” is a better punchline than “market stabilising after an abnormal liquidity event.” But investors, and collectors, know better. Corrections cleanse excess, reset expectations, and lay foundations for sustainable growth.
The watch market hasn’t lost its appeal. It’s regained its composure.
Why the Best Buyers Are Buying Now
Seasoned collectors and professional dealers are quietly more active today than they were at the peak. Why?
First, selection. As speculative demand exits, better watches are coming to market; full sets, original condition, strong provenance. Secondly, pricing discipline has returned. Buyers are no longer competing with momentum traders; negotiations are rational again. And thirdly, intent has shifted. Purchases are being made to own and wear, not to flip.
From a capital-allocation standpoint, luxury watches now sit in a compelling middle ground: tangible, globally portable assets with cultural relevance and proven long-term demand, but without the short-term excess that defined the pandemic years.
The Verdict
January 2026 finds the luxury watch market calmer, more rational, and arguably more attractive than it has been in years. Prices are realistic, supply is healthier, and buying decisions can once again be made with confidence rather than urgency.
For those thinking long term, for enjoyment, for legacy, or for value – the conditions are quietly excellent. The bubble is gone. The fundamentals remain. And history suggests that moments like this, not the peaks, are when the best watches are bought.
In watchmaking, as in markets, timing matters . . . but perspective matters more.
At Swiss Watch Club we are delighted to present a collection of preowned watches for your persual. If you would like to make an appointment to visit us please contact us to arrange.